When you first think about it, when you are handicapping horse races, the toteboard seems to be one place where the truth can be found. It seems that since the amounts of money wagered on a horse are apparent, it is fairly easy to get a rough idea of how good the horse is and where it might finish. That is why the more wagered on a horse, the more likely it is to win.
But the transparency of the toteboard is something of a myth, because once you get into deciphering the exotics and place and show pools, the clues are harder to understand. For instance, let’s say the favorite in the race is at 2-1 and there is 3,000 in the win pool and 1,000 in the place pool. On the other hand, the second favorite is at 3-1 and there is 2,000 in the win pool, but 1,00 in the place pool. To further complicate the situation, the third favorite is at 7-2 with 1,500 in the win pool and 1,100 in the place pool.
Does this mean that the third favorite is more likely to be second than the second favorite? If so, does that mean it is a better bet to play as the place horse in the exacta? Looking at the exotics may be even more confusing. You may find that the lowest paying exacta is the favorite over the third favorite or even the fourth favorite.
Obviously, every one can’t be right. The handicappers who back the fourth favorite as the place horse under the favorite, therefore backing it to place, have made that the lowest paying exacta. The place bettors seem to think the third favorite is most likely to place. Both groups can’t be right.
If the third favorite or fourth favorite is being backed heavily to run second, does it mean the fix is on? Or does it mean that an astute handicapper has backed it heavily figuring it is a bargain? This disparity in the pools and exotic payoffs can present problems to handicappers who like to see things neat and tidy and to make sense.
On the other hand, this situation can also present a possibility of finding an overlay, and therefore a good bet, in something other than the win pools. As a general rule, I think it is the crowd, the average or recreational bettors, who wager heavily on a second favorite to place. It just seems to make so much sense to them and require very little thought. The horse is the second favorite and therefore they think it will come in second.
On the other hand, they also usually bet it heavily in the place position under the favorite. If you find that exacta isn’t the lowest paying exacta, you may have found some smart money hiding in the exacta pools. Look closely at exactas that are heavily backed when they don’t have the second or third favorite in the place spot. They are often a tip off that some other horse is being over looked by the crowd for some reason, but it figures to be a factor in the race and has a good chance of completing the exacta or maybe even winning the race.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.